Road Accident Prediction Model for Kerala: ”Do Nothing Scenario”
Fatality, major injury and minor injury in Kerala due to road accidents are predicted for “do nothing scenario” using regression model relating population, Vehicle population and accident data from 2002 -2013. Here, the number of vehicles in 10000’s is taken as (N), population in millions as (P), No. of fatality as (D), Major injury as (Ma) and Minor injury as (Mi)
Subsequently, for the regression model to predict fatality, (N/P) is taken on x-axis and (D/N) on y-axis. Projection is made using power equation. The figures show the regression model for predicting fatality, major injury and minor injury.
According to a do-nothing scenario, the accident cost for Kerala state would raise to USD 652 million by the year 2024 and to USD 1456 million by 2034.
After considering the improvements using the additional fund generated, a reduction of 1678 KSI could be achieved in the first year and 6134 KSI by the end of sixth year. That is, a B/C ratio of 3.2 is achievable by the end of sixth year.
Cost-Share for Road Safety out of Total Road Construction Cost
An attempt has been made to find out the cost share of road safety related items in the total construction cost of roads. For this purpose, item wise costs of road construction have been considered, the total cost of different road safety related items are taken to work out its cost-share out of the total investment made towards road construction. The items considered as related to road safety are median, railing, road marking, signage crash barrier, street light, and footpath (for pedestrian safety) etc. According to the scrutiny, 8.4% of the total cost of road construction is for road safety related items. When the existing expenditure for road safety awareness and enforcement are included the total share rises to 9.1%.
But according to the improved scenario in this study, the required cost share of road safety related items should be 13.9%. This includes the additional investment required for targeted reduction of road accident fatality and serious injuries also. At present there is an investment of USD 46 million in a year. When the additional investment required to reduce 3.2% (according to combination-1) of fatalities and serious injuries as worked out above is included, the total investment required becomes USD 74 million, which is 13.9% of the total investment made towards road construction.
- Total additional fund required to reduce 1% of fatalities in 1year for Kerala state is USD 5.7 million.
- An amount of around USD 40 million could be generated per year for road safety improvement from different beneficiaries.
- At present only 9.1% of the total investment on road infrastructure is made for road safety. According to the improved scenario, it needs to invest 13.1%.
The study recommends the following:
- It is strongly recommended that at least 13% of the total investment for road construction is to be made for activities related to road safety.
- Increased priority is to be given for road safety awareness and training programmes as majority of the accidents are happening due to driver behavioral problems.
- Enforcement to be strengthened with the use of improved technologies, over speeding, drunken driving and helmetless riding are to be prevented.
- Fund should be distributed to each district, activity wise using rational mechanisms.
M.Plan (Transport Planning)
School of Planning and Architecture